The Baloney Detection Kit: Carl Sagan’s Rules for Bullshit-Busting and Critical Thinking
by Maria Popova
Necessary cognitive fortification against propaganda, pseudoscience, and general falsehood.
In a chapter titled “The Fine Art of Baloney Detection,” Sagan reflects on the many types of deception to which we’re susceptible — from psychics to religious zealotry to paid product endorsements by scientists, which he held in especially low regard, noting that they “betray contempt for the intelligence of their customers” and “introduce an insidious corruption of popular attitudes about scientific objectivity.” (Cue in PBS’s Joe Hanson on how to read science news.) But rather than preaching from the ivory tower of self-righteousness, Sagan approaches the subject from the most vulnerable of places — having just lost both of his parents, he reflects on the all too human allure of promises of supernatural reunions in the afterlife, reminding us that falling for such fictions doesn’t make us stupid or bad people, but simply means that we need to equip ourselves with the right tools against them.
Through their training, scientists are equipped with what Sagan calls a “baloney detection kit” — a set of cognitive tools and techniques that fortify the mind against penetration by falsehoods:
The kit is brought out as a matter of course whenever new ideas are offered for consideration. If the new idea survives examination by the tools in our kit, we grant it warm, although tentative, acceptance. If you’re so inclined, if you don’t want to buy baloney even when it’s reassuring to do so, there are precautions that can be taken; there’s a tried-and-true, consumer-tested method.But the kit, Sagan argues, isn’t merely a tool of science — rather, it contains invaluable tools of healthy skepticism that apply just as elegantly, and just as necessarily, to everyday life. By adopting the kit, we can all shield ourselves against clueless guile and deliberate manipulation. Sagan shares nine of these tools:
- Wherever possible there must be independent confirmation of the “facts.”
- Encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents of all points of view.
- Arguments from authority carry little weight — “authorities” have made mistakes in the past. They will do so again in the future. Perhaps a better way to say it is that in science there are no authorities; at most, there are experts.
- Spin more than one hypothesis. If there’s something to be explained, think of all the different ways in which it could be explained. Then think of tests by which you might systematically disprove each of the alternatives. What survives, the hypothesis that resists disproof in this Darwinian selection among “multiple working hypotheses,” has a much better chance of being the right answer than if you had simply run with the first idea that caught your fancy.
- Try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis just because it’s yours. It’s only a way station in the pursuit of knowledge. Ask yourself why you like the idea. Compare it fairly with the alternatives. See if you can find reasons for rejecting it. If you don’t, others will.
- Quantify. If whatever it is you’re explaining has some measure, some numerical quantity attached to it, you’ll be much better able to discriminate among competing hypotheses. What is vague and qualitative is open to many explanations. Of course there are truths to be sought in the many qualitative issues we are obliged to confront, but finding them is more challenging.
- If there’s a chain of argument, every link in the chain must work (including the premise) — not just most of them.
- Occam’s Razor. This convenient rule-of-thumb urges us when faced with two hypotheses that explain the data equally well to choose the simpler.
- Always ask whether the hypothesis can be, at least in principle, falsified. Propositions that are untestable, unfalsifiable are not worth much. Consider the grand idea that our Universe and everything in it is just an elementary particle — an electron, say — in a much bigger Cosmos. But if we can never acquire information from outside our Universe, is not the idea incapable of disproof? You must be able to check assertions out. Inveterate skeptics must be given the chance to follow your reasoning, to duplicate your experiments and see if they get the same result.
Just as important as learning these helpful tools, however, is unlearning and avoiding the most common pitfalls of common sense. Reminding us of where society is most vulnerable to those, Sagan writes:
In addition to teaching us what to do when evaluating a claim to knowledge, any good baloney detection kit must also teach us what not to do. It helps us recognize the most common and perilous fallacies of logic and rhetoric. Many good examples can be found in religion and politics, because their practitioners are so often obliged to justify two contradictory propositions.He admonishes against the twenty most common and perilous ones — many rooted in our chronic discomfort with ambiguity — with examples of each in action:
Sagan ends the chapter with a necessary disclaimer:
- ad hominem — Latin for “to the man,” attacking the arguer and not the argument (e.g., The Reverend Dr. Smith is a known Biblical fundamentalist, so her objections to evolution need not be taken seriously)
- argument from authority (e.g., President Richard Nixon should be re-elected because he has a secret plan to end the war in Southeast Asia — but because it was secret, there was no way for the electorate to evaluate it on its merits; the argument amounted to trusting him because he was President: a mistake, as it turned out)
- argument from adverse consequences (e.g., A God meting out punishment and reward must exist, because if He didn’t, society would be much more lawless and dangerous — perhaps even ungovernable. Or: The defendant in a widely publicized murder trial must be found guilty; otherwise, it will be an encouragement for other men to murder their wives)
- appeal to ignorance — the claim that whatever has not been proved false must be true, and vice versa (e.g., There is no compelling evidence that UFOs are not visiting the Earth; therefore UFOs exist — and there is intelligent life elsewhere in the Universe. Or: There may be seventy kazillion other worlds, but not one is known to have the moral advancement of the Earth, so we’re still central to the Universe.) This impatience with ambiguity can be criticized in the phrase: absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
- special pleading, often to rescue a proposition in deep rhetorical trouble (e.g., How can a merciful God condemn future generations to torment because, against orders, one woman induced one man to eat an apple? Special plead: you don’t understand the subtle Doctrine of Free Will. Or: How can there be an equally godlike Father, Son, and Holy Ghost in the same Person? Special plead: You don’t understand the Divine Mystery of the Trinity. Or: How could God permit the followers of Judaism, Christianity, and Islam — each in their own way enjoined to heroic measures of loving kindness and compassion — to have perpetrated so much cruelty for so long? Special plead: You don’t understand Free Will again. And anyway, God moves in mysterious ways.)
- begging the question, also called assuming the answer (e.g., We must institute the death penalty to discourage violent crime. But does the violent crime rate in fact fall when the death penalty is imposed? Or: The stock market fell yesterday because of a technical adjustment and profit-taking by investors — but is there any independent evidence for the causal role of “adjustment” and profit-taking; have we learned anything at all from this purported explanation?)
- observational selection, also called the enumeration of favorable circumstances, or as the philosopher Francis Bacon described it, counting the hits and forgetting the misses (e.g., A state boasts of the Presidents it has produced, but is silent on its serial killers)
- statistics of small numbers — a close relative of observational selection (e.g., “They say 1 out of every 5 people is Chinese. How is this possible? I know hundreds of people, and none of them is Chinese. Yours truly.” Or: “I’ve thrown three sevens in a row. Tonight I can’t lose.”)
- misunderstanding of the nature of statistics (e.g., President Dwight Eisenhower expressing astonishment and alarm on discovering that fully half of all Americans have below average intelligence);
- inconsistency (e.g., Prudently plan for the worst of which a potential military adversary is capable, but thriftily ignore scientific projections on environmental dangers because they’re not “proved.” Or: Attribute the declining life expectancy in the former Soviet Union to the failures of communism many years ago, but never attribute the high infant mortality rate in the United States (now highest of the major industrial nations) to the failures of capitalism. Or: Consider it reasonable for the Universe to continue to exist forever into the future, but judge absurd the possibility that it has infinite duration into the past);
- non sequitur — Latin for “It doesn’t follow” (e.g., Our nation will prevail because God is great. But nearly every nation pretends this to be true; the German formulation was “Gott mit uns”). Often those falling into the non sequitur fallacy have simply failed to recognize alternative possibilities;
- post hoc, ergo propter hoc — Latin for “It happened after, so it was caused by” (e.g., Jaime Cardinal Sin, Archbishop of Manila: “I know of … a 26-year-old who looks 60 because she takes [contraceptive] pills.” Or: Before women got the vote, there were no nuclear weapons)
- meaningless question (e.g., What happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object? But if there is such a thing as an irresistible force there can be no immovable objects, and vice versa)
- excluded middle, or false dichotomy — considering only the two extremes in a continuum of intermediate possibilities (e.g., “Sure, take his side; my husband’s perfect; I’m always wrong.” Or: “Either you love your country or you hate it.” Or: “If you’re not part of the solution, you’re part of the problem”)
- short-term vs. long-term — a subset of the excluded middle, but so important I’ve pulled it out for special attention (e.g., We can’t afford programs to feed malnourished children and educate pre-school kids. We need to urgently deal with crime on the streets. Or: Why explore space or pursue fundamental science when we have so huge a budget deficit?);
- slippery slope, related to excluded middle (e.g., If we allow abortion in the first weeks of pregnancy, it will be impossible to prevent the killing of a full-term infant. Or, conversely: If the state prohibits abortion even in the ninth month, it will soon be telling us what to do with our bodies around the time of conception);
- confusion of correlation and causation (e.g., A survey shows that more college graduates are homosexual than those with lesser education; therefore education makes people gay. Or: Andean earthquakes are correlated with closest approaches of the planet Uranus; therefore — despite the absence of any such correlation for the nearer, more massive planet Jupiter — the latter causes the former)
- straw man — caricaturing a position to make it easier to attack (e.g., Scientists suppose that living things simply fell together by chance — a formulation that willfully ignores the central Darwinian insight, that Nature ratchets up by saving what works and discarding what doesn’t. Or — this is also a short-term/long-term fallacy — environmentalists care more for snail darters and spotted owls than they do for people)
- suppressed evidence, or half-truths (e.g., An amazingly accurate and widely quoted “prophecy” of the assassination attempt on President Reagan is shown on television; but — an important detail — was it recorded before or after the event? Or: These government abuses demand revolution, even if you can’t make an omelette without breaking some eggs. Yes, but is this likely to be a revolution in which far more people are killed than under the previous regime? What does the experience of other revolutions suggest? Are all revolutions against oppressive regimes desirable and in the interests of the people?)
- weasel words (e.g., The separation of powers of the U.S. Constitution specifies that the United States may not conduct a war without a declaration by Congress. On the other hand, Presidents are given control of foreign policy and the conduct of wars, which are potentially powerful tools for getting themselves re-elected. Presidents of either political party may therefore be tempted to arrange wars while waving the flag and calling the wars something else — “police actions,” “armed incursions,” “protective reaction strikes,” “pacification,” “safeguarding American interests,” and a wide variety of “operations,” such as “Operation Just Cause.” Euphemisms for war are one of a broad class of reinventions of language for political purposes. Talleyrand said, “An important art of politicians is to find new names for institutions which under old names have become odious to the public”)
Like all tools, the baloney detection kit can be misused, applied out of context, or even employed as a rote alternative to thinking. But applied judiciously, it can make all the difference in the world — not least in evaluating our own arguments before we present them to others.The Demon-Haunted World is a timelessly fantastic read in its entirety, timelier than ever in a great many ways amidst our present media landscape of propaganda, pseudoscience, and various commercial motives. Complement it with Sagan on science and “God”.
Cordiali Saluti
Basta intendersi sui termini e sullo stile utilizzato che può anzi deve essere diverso nel metodo e a volte anche nei fini.
Non si può immaginare che lo stile sintetico o aforistico sia l’unico non avulso da “sostanza” o l’unico applicabile.
Diversamente, il rischio è demolire tante idee più che valide e rivoluzionarie che hanno illuminato, seppure a intermittenza, la storia umana.
Solo a titolo di esempio, Montaigne utilizzava moltissime citazioni e al contempo metteva in guardia dal “sapere pedantesco” e dalle “trappole dell’immaginazione”.
Ognuno troverà i lettori che merita, impazienti di arrivare al “nocciolo” piuttosto che desiderosi di arrivarci dopo alcune “giravolte” che non servono (solo) a solleticare sterilmente il proprio orgoglio intellettuale ma (anche) a “fissare” gradualmente il concetto che si vuole esprimere.
Un caro saluto
Il ragazzo da “Lodi” esteticamente tragico, dimentica o gli è sfuggita la differenza tra Presente e Attuale…
Attendo la seconda parte, ringrazio…. Ciao.
La filosofia è anche godimento e in senso lato può anche essere riso. Non deve mai dimenticare che il tragico non ha nulla a che fare con lo spirito di serietà.
Grazie per la lettura e per l’attenzione.
Daniele
Però se penso che anche la seconda parte possa essere chiosata da quella maestrina di matematica di Lodi fa tremare le vene e i polsi (corrige: il pulsus dei vasi o delle vene… cura l’italiano e il latino, bimba, oltre alla dianoetica e alla bisbetica). Cerca di evitarlo. Non ricoprire l’articolo di parole ma magari di note musicali e di cioccolato. Dimentica gli arabeschi all’occhiello ed esplora una logica di speculazione che dia alti introiti. Lascia perdere i filosofi tedeschi, cioè gli unici che esistono, e dà finalmente importanza alla mistica del Paraguay. Ricorda che la filosofia è sacrificio, dubbio e tormento come in “Uccelli di rovo”. Scusa queste parole scherzose, fanno il gioco della maestrina, ma non è facile sopportare quel modo di fare: irrompere sul campo di battaglia e cercare di fare a pezzi il nemico. Dice Seneca in una lettera a Lucilio: tu, amico, critichi questo e quello ma perché non ti chiedi cosa di meglio hai fatto tu? Capire gli altri e i loro pensieri dovrebbe essere la norma di chi mira alla conoscenza e non a esibire sé stesso. Ma è un segno dei tempi. Auguro a Dario il piccolo di arricchirsi con questo metodo, come il buon Sgarbi, perché in caso contrario avrà ottenuto solo un po’ di malinconia nel guardarsi allo specchio.
A presto, Daniele
Un caro saluto
Daniele
Non guadagno e neanche perdita.
Bisogna pensare la vita come metamorfosi.
E’ la paura che ci frega.
Il bambino non conosce paura perchè non conosce la morte, invece l’adulto ha paura perchè ne vorrebbe sapere di più sull’argomento e perde di vista il cammino semplicemente curioso del primo.
Si deve vivere come rosa che non sa il suo perchè, pensando soltanto a far bene le cose con animo scevro da ansie e malizie.
Si pensa sempre a confrontarsi con gli altri, bisogna anche pensare a confrontarsi con sé stessi con onestà intellettuale.
Anche nel peccato originale c’è stato un confronto, il massimo, quello con Dio.
Fu un brutto giorno, una terribile incomprensione, e vi si perse la fiducia reciproca.
Poi vabbè, lo sappiamo tutti che è stata tutta colpa della donna (scherzo! E da qui che forse nasce la discriminazione per la figura femminile?).
E se l’Uomo e Dio fossero rispettivamente gli stessi Caino ed Abele (o viceversa???) della parabola di borgesiana memoria ed esempio di morale, che ci fosse appunto bisogno di una semplice e sincera riconciliazione.
Da quel giorno forse Dio aspetta che l’uomo, ogni uomo, riconosca sinceramente il proprio errore e che in pace a Lui ritorni.
Peccato, o per fortuna (calcolando come vanno le cose), che un Dio non c’è.
Pennac: “Se Dio esiste, spero che abbia una scusa valida”.
Saluti.
LexMat
Sono felice in generale quando ciò che scrivo suscita suggestioni e ulteriori sviluppi, declinazioni del tema secondo la sensibilità di chi legge.
Un caro saluto
Daniele